

WHAT THE HECK is happening in the real estate market in Victoria!?
One thing is for certain, buyers and sellers are finding it harder and harder to agree on price because in general, their perspectives on the market are very different...
Many buyers feel right now that this is the worst market we have seen and that things may get worse before they get better. Therefore, they either want to get a deal on their purchase or stand back and wait to see what will happen before they make any offers at all. Their feelings are likely bolstered by scary financial news from Europe, by mixed reports and predictions about our local economy and by the shear amount of product they have to choose from.
Often when there is too much choice, people opt not to make a decision at all. It really is a fascinating psychological phenomenon... in the market of 2005/6/7 (when I was newer to the business) we would see people waiting anxiously to buy and when even one listing came up that generally fit their criteria they would be in the door the first day and writing an offer against five other buyers that night. The list price wasn’t as scrutinized as it is today, buyers were just trying to get the house before the other buyers.
Now, buyers can start their search and see 10 properties that fit their criteria. They will visit each one over a few weeks or months and little by little their criteria tightens as they learn that different homes offer different things and maybe, just maybe, they can find the absolute perfect place if they wait long enough for it to come on the market! When the perfect place does present itself, then the real analysis begins... they have seen 10-20 other homes, some of which were priced lower, doesn’t that mean they should get the lowest price on this one? How can the sellers think that their home is worth so much more than these others? Just because we like it better doesn’t mean it IS better... does it?
Meanwhile, sellers decide to list their home. Their agent looks around at the comparable listings for sale... yikes, there are 10+ homes on the market that are in direct comparison to theirs and there is 4-5 months of inventory on the market in that type of home. BUT, looking at the stats, average prices have remained steady. They are still up from the pre-recession market “high” that everyone talks about in 2008/9. Sales are still occurring and we can see that most of them are at a stable value. There is the occasional sale out of desperation where the house sells for a lower than average price, but these sellers aren’t desperate, so they may as well price the place with the bulk of the competition.
Along comes the buyer... this home is their favourite of all the available homes. They decide to write an offer. They inevitably compare it to the home that sold in the same neighbourhood under a court ordered sale, with trash in the front yard and no pictures of the interior on MLS. ‘Why should we pay more than the buyers did for this one? Let’s write at the same price as that one,’
Seller receives the offer... happy to get it, as they have waited for a couple of months on the market and have reduced their price once already. Everything about the offer is great... except of course for the price. ‘Yikes! How can they think our house is worth that much!? Don’t they know we bought it in 2007 for $xxxK and are now selling for the same price? Prices are UP on average since then, what gives?!’
And so the negotiations ensue... agents working tirelessly to convince the other side that their price is fair. Buyer's agent: ‘Look at how much there is to chose from on the market, and surely things will get worse in 2012. My managing broker said so.’ Listing agent: ‘But the stats show that prices are UP, that they are steady. My clients aren’t desperate, they don’t need to sell themselves short. They will just rent it out. We are still getting showings, you know.’
Many of these offers do not come together at all.
However, even with these polar forces acting against each other, last month the number of sales was unchanged since the month before and both months were about the same as last year. So why the doom and gloom? Why are some people saying this is the worst market they have experienced in years? I believe the reasons are as I mentioned at the beginning of this BLOG – the amount of listings on the market and the global financial unrest. The world just feels a bit unpredictable right now. When we have watched the US housing market come crashing down and we are seeing countries in Europe in such financial turmoil, it feels like nothing is stable or reliable.
That is not the climate in which the average person feels comfortable investing large sums of money. But it is because of this climate that interest rates are still ridiculously low. One can still get a variable rate mortgage below prime and fixed can be 2.9% or lower as well.
As usual when rates are low and opportunity to buy high, investors are making their moves. New housing starts are also up, which is a positive reflection of the local economy.
What does it all mean? The market is slower, but steady. Balanced. The experience of each buyer and seller in this market will probably incorporate some of the perspectives above. But the stats show healthy activity.
Here is a recent Times Colonist article that articulates the Victoria market's current position quite well: http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Housing+expected+hold+steady+2012/5823636/story.html
You can also view the updated graphs of prices and inventory vs sales over the past two years. Just scroll down and click on the links at the bottom... go on, everybody loves a good graph! http://www.homesbynaomi.com/newsletter.php
For personal advice on whether this (or the new year) is the right time for you to make a move, please slip me an email or give me a ring. I love helping people navigate Victoria’s market. Sometimes my advice is to stay put, sometimes it’s specific for a particular timeframe. I’ve got lots of ideas and would love to discuss them with you.
In the meantime, enjoy the beginning of the holidays!
****************************I am starting this on another crisp sunny autumn day in Victoria – how lucky we are!
Victoria’s real estate market has also been fortunate lately. Although inventory levels are still high, new listings decreased last month while sales increased! As we head further into Fall, the number of listings will continue to drop off as it always does, but sales will likely hold fairly strong in proportion. In other words, there is hope for sellers who are motivated to move this Fall/Winter!
Average prices are down according to the Victoria Real Estate Board in single family homes, condos and townhouses. This isn’t a surprise with the slower year we have had. It is tougher than ever to help buyers and sellers agree in this market. Everyone wants a deal and their interests are more and more at odds.
The reality is, if you are moving again after buying within the last few years, you will have a tough time getting your money out of your current investment. However, if you are able to move up a few rungs on the property ladder or get a great price on a longer term home, this could be a smart move right now. I have lots of advice on what to look for and what to avoid when buying. I also would advise some people to just stay put for a while. Let me know if you have questions about your particular circumstances.
Big picture – with Europe’s finances in chaos and things still grim south of the border, we likely won’t see a lot of pick-up in our market in the next year or so, likely longer. However, Victoria has fared better than almost any other area of North America throughout the financial crisis to date, and I see its resilience continuing. With the global uncertainty, it is always great to be a first time buyer. Prices aren’t likely to go down much, but not up either and inventory will likely stay high offering lots of selection to buyers.
Congrats to my clients who bought and sold this past month: A fabulous Fairfield house with a large lot, lovely updates and still some potential for the savvy buyer... A luxury Songhees suite boasting over-the-top finishings and quality of construction at a bargain of a price... A spacious, bright, newer Esquimalt condo at an excellent price too! Well done, folks! And thank you for working with me and my amazing colleagues.
My current listings can always be found at . My 3 bed, 3 bath plus den townhome has been re-listed. Sellers are asking a very reasonable $400,000. It has upgrades galore and is in a very safe and quiet location. Know anyone? Email me please 
Have a wonderful November!
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September 2011
Market
Prices are up again on average in Victoria and the market is starting to wake up a little after a sleepy Spring and Summer. Traditionally September is a fairly active month when people return from holidays and start their property search with the goal of moving before the end of the year. There is usually a small spike in the number of new listings as well. These expected trends are definitely playing out as this September speeds by.
There are over 4600 listings on Victoria’s MLS system right now making this an excellent time to be a buyer (as it generally has been for the last two years.) Positive forecasts for real estate in BC have been making headlines and I believe Victoria will definitely see these predictions come true - prices staying steady or rising and demand steady as well.
Please click on the following link http://www.homesbynaomi.com/newsletter.php and check out the links at the bottom of the page for graphs showing prices and inventory. Gotta love a good graph, right!?
My listings
The fabulously upgraded home I have listed in Langford for $400,000 has new pictures! Check them out along with floorplans and additional info at http://www.homesbynaomi.com/single.php4?id=298446 . There will be an OPEN HOUSE there Sat & Sun 11-1 this weekend 17th & 18th.
Me
I am working part time, helping mostly sellers right now while my amazing colleagues help me service my buyers. Thanks to all of my clients for staying in touch. I am always eager for your real estate questions and welcome your inquiries.
Meanwhile, little Nathan is almost 6 months, which is hard to believe. He is commando crawling, working on sitting and sampling his first foods. Exciting and wonderful times!
Enjoy the rest of the month and thanks for reading!
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August Victoria Market Update
Hello real estate enthusiasts!! For a market update check out the last two links at the bottom of the page here. As you can see, prices are down for all types of homes across Victoria. This can partially be blamed on more affordable properties being the ones that are selling (young families tend to move in the summer plus first time buyers and investors are making up a decent proportion of the buyership and they buy small/less expensive.) However, that is only part of the story, with an actual downturn in prices being a true factor as well.
This is the first time we have seen prices truly coming down in the past two years. We had a slow spring which created major motivation for some sellers, which means some have been accepting lower prices. There are still some very motivated sellers out there, but there are some not-so-motivated ones too. It is important to have an experienced buyer’s agent on your side right now to help you navigate this dynamic market if you are making a purchase.
Although things are still slow and prices are down, my listing at 120/122 Cambridge already has an accepted offer after 2 weeks on the market! This quick sale can be attributed not only to my tricks as a listing agent but also to my seller’s superior efforts perfecting her home for sale. Staging of the home, online presentation and smart pricing (as I always say) are the recipe for a quick sale every time!
Please let me know if i can help someone you know purchase or sell in the next little while.
Happy weekend!
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OPEN HOUSE
3211 Ernhill Pl Sat August 6th 2-4pm. Hosted by Richard Gadoury.
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NEW LISTING
3211 Ernhill Pl $410,000 http://www.homesbynaomi.com/single.php4?id=297508
Gorgeous upgraded townhome in Creekside Village. Full appliance package upgrade! Spacious sky-lit open concept living with 15 ft vaulted ceiling, 3-way gas fireplace, bright dining, large kitchen with bar plus pantry/storage. Sunny, private patio space with room to relax & BBQ plus grass! Freshly painted in neutral scheme with custom feature wall. Large master fit for King bed with walk-thru closet to full ensuite. Two other beds & full bath up plus main floor den for home office! Two ext. parking plus garage provides optional additional living space (rec room, gym or storage!) Better than new home in safe, quiet, family neighbourhood with parks, schools & ALL shopping close, yet tucked away on no-thru street! Priced bang on with last 2 sales in complex.
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Recommendation for homeowners
We just had our exterior windows cleaned by The Moss Man. They also did our gutters last year. Both times we have used them we have been very pleased with their service, pricing and especially the results. Check out their services at http://www.mossman.ca/ if you are readying your home for sale or would just rather enjoy the sun in a recliner than on a ladder this summer!
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OPEN HOUSE
120/122 Cambridge Sat July 23rd 2-4pm. Hosted by Richard Gadoury.
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NEW LISTING
120/122 Cambridge $950,000 http://www.homesbynaomi.com/single.php4?id=296594
Owned by interior designer & it shows! Stunning freshly renovated home blocks from Cook St Village & ocean! Airy open concept living with spacious rooms. New baths feature heated floors, custom wenge vanities, vessel Duravit sink, glass walk-in shower, marble surround & Grohe rain shower head! Refinished solid wood floors, Stainless appliances, new custom laundry, gas fireplace, custom his & hers built-in closets with organizers. New doors, hardware, window treatments, & lighting. 1911 charm without the worry: full vermiculite abatement complete & knob & tube removed by Seller. Duplex zoned with fully legal suite approved by city! 1 bed & den, own laundry & big storage, stainless appliances & new floors! Plus awesome legal detached studio with heat, electrical & storage! Come & see!
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July 4th, 2011
The July 1st Victoria real estate stats are now available through my website at http://www.homesbynaomi.com/newsletter.php . Scroll to the bottom of the page and check out the last two links for graphs depicting price changes over the last 2 years and also inventory (supply) & sales (demand) for the same time period.
To summarize, there is not much to report in terms of changes over the last few months. This Spring has seen high inventory and fairly low sales levels. This is great news for Buyers, but as usual when the market stagnates a bit, buyers are scared to do anything. This is a fabulous time for first time buyers or investors to make a move.
Let me know if you know anyone who is thinking of buying or selling real estate in the Victoria area this Summer / Fall. Thanks again and enjoy the sunny week that is forecasted!
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In other news...
I have made a decision to change brokerages. I have immensely enjoyed my 5 ½ + years with Royal LePage Coast Capital Realty, my business has flourished and I have made many wonderful friends in my fellow agents. However, with a new baby comes a new pace and Pemberton Holmes seems to be the best fit for me moving forward.
Pemberton Holmes is a family run company and was the first real estate company in Victoria, its roots dating back to the 1850's. This history has always interested me as I am told that I am the great great (great?) granddaughter of the first mayor of Victoria. Indeed the mayor, Thomas Harris may have been chumming around with J.D. Pemberton back in the 1860's. Now 150 years later, I am proud to be a part of the Pemberton Holmes office on Cloverdale.
I am still working closely with the agents at Royal LePage that I selected to help my clients while I take some time out of the office to be with baby Nathan. My chosen RLP colleagues have been highly praised by my clients over the last few months and I am continuing to work with them to make sure my clients are very well looked after - whatever their real state objectives and timeframes.
My website www.HomesByNaomi.com has not changed, and nor will my email: Info@HomesByNaomi.com. My fax # 1-866-806-6462 is the same as well (who the heck uses fax anymore anyway!?)
****Changes include: my new office # is 250-384-8124 and toll free 1-800-665-5303. My office address is Pemberton Holmes #150-805 Cloverdale Avenue, Victoria, BC V8X 2S9. Please update your address books / contact folders for me right now while you are thinking about it.... That's right... don't put it off.... Do it now!!!.......... Ok, thanks :)****
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Quick June Market Update...
On paper, there is not much to report in terms of changes to the Victoria marketplace for the beginning of June. Prices have been pretty steady in all types of property and demand has also stayed steady, with supply still high. The word on the street, however, is much more positive than that of the last few months. Interest from buyers has picked up again and many listings (if properly priced) are selling quickly.
My clients listed their home with one of my colleagues this past month and received an offer within 4 days. It is now firm and they have a firm offer in on the home they are moving to.
Let me know if you also want to get the ball rolling on a move this Summer or if you know someone who does.
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Which leads me to the next topic: Nathan Peter Rae Larkins. Born on March 24th at 8 lbs 11 oz, he is a lovely baby who has stolen Darren's and my hearts. We have had a few challenges with feeding and are still working through them, but Nathan is actually quite a laid back, easy baby. He is now weighing in at over 11 lbs and is doing really well. Some sleep would be nice though! Here's a recent pic.